Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 67.84%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 13.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.06%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.81%), while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (3.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.

Result
Spartak Moscow	Draw	Orenburg
67.84% ( 0.23)	18.67% ( 0.06)	13.49% ( -0.29)

Both teams to score 51.99% (

-1.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.72% (

-0.98)

40.28% (

0.98)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.35% (

-1.01)

62.65% (

1.01)

Spartak Moscow Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.1% (

-0.21)

10.9% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.95% (

-0.47)

35.05% (

0.48)

Orenburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.35% (

-1.05)

41.65% (

1.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.87% (

-0.93)

78.13% (

0.94)

Score Analysis

Spartak Moscow 67.84%

Orenburg 13.49%

Draw 18.67%

Spartak Moscow	Draw	Orenburg
2-0 @ 11.15% ( 0.31) 1-0 @ 10.06% ( 0.36) 2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.13) 5-0 @ 2.02% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.77% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.09) Other @ 4.13% Total : 67.84%	1-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.12% Total : 18.67%	0-1 @ 3.98% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.53% Total : 13.49%