Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 57.91%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 19.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.92%) and 2-0 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a Krylia Sovetov win it was 0-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.
