SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Rostov | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 10 | Spartak Moscow | 29 | -3 | 38 |
| 11 | Ural Yekaterinburg | 29 | -9 | 30 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St Petersburg | 29 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sochi | 29 | 20 | 53 |
| 3 | Dynamo Moscow | 29 | 16 | 53 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 41.36%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 32.62% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.75%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Spartak Moscow | Draw | Zenit St Petersburg |
32.62% ( 0.6) | 26.02% ( 0.03) | 41.36% ( -0.63) |
| Both teams to score 53.48% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.17% ( 0.06) | 50.83% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.28% ( 0.05) | 72.72% ( -0.05) |
| Spartak Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.66% ( 0.43) | 29.34% ( -0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.68% ( 0.52) | 65.32% ( -0.52) |
| Zenit St Petersburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.69% ( -0.29) | 24.31% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.31% ( -0.42) | 58.69% ( 0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spartak Moscow | Draw | Zenit St Petersburg |
| 1-0 @ 8.75% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 7.58% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 3.1% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.19% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.5% Total : 32.62% | 1-1 @ 12.37% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.13% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.36% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.02% | 0-1 @ 10.08% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 8.75% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 7.14% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 4.12% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.73% Total : 41.35% |
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