SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Queen of the South | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | Kelty Hearts | 5 | -10 | 1 |
| 10 | Peterhead | 5 | -12 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dunfermline Athletic | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Falkirk | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Edinburgh City | 5 | 0 | 9 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kelty Hearts win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Falkirk had a probability of 29.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kelty Hearts win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Falkirk win was 0-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kelty Hearts would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kelty Hearts | Draw | Falkirk |
44.3% ( -0.93) | 25.75% ( -0.12) | 29.95% ( 1.05) |
| Both teams to score 53.2% ( 0.97) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( 0.98) | 50.68% ( -0.98) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.42% ( 0.86) | 72.58% ( -0.86) |
| Kelty Hearts Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.2% ( -0.02) | 22.8% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.49% ( -0.03) | 56.51% ( 0.03) |
| Falkirk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.91% ( 1.27) | 31.09% ( -1.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.59% ( 1.46) | 67.41% ( -1.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kelty Hearts | Draw | Falkirk |
| 1-0 @ 10.47% ( -0.43) 2-1 @ 9.05% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.32)3-1 @ 4.46% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.82% ( -0.16)3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.65% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.41% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.12% Total : 44.29% | 1-1 @ 12.24% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.28)2-2 @ 5.29% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.75% | 0-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.15% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.18)2-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.95% Total : 29.95% |
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