Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dumbarton win with a probability of 42.74%. A win for Annan Athletic had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dumbarton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Annan Athletic win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dumbarton would win this match.
0.38) 
-0.22) 
