SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundee win with a probability of 42.19%. A win for Motherwell had a probability of 33.3% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundee win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Motherwell win was 1-2 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dundee would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dundee | Draw | Motherwell |
42.19% ( 0.03) | 24.51% ( 0.23) | 33.3% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 58.83% ( -0.93) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.01% ( -1.18) | 43.98% ( 1.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.63% ( -1.16) | 66.36% ( 1.16) |
| Dundee Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.05% ( -0.48) | 20.94% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.31% ( -0.76) | 53.68% ( 0.76) |
| Motherwell Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.41% ( -0.72) | 25.58% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.54% ( -0.99) | 60.46% ( 0.99) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dundee | Draw | Motherwell |
| 2-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.38% ( 0.31)2-0 @ 6.55% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 4.65% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.71% Total : 42.19% | 1-1 @ 11.41% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.12)0-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.27)3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.5% | 1-2 @ 7.78% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.3% ( 0.22)0-2 @ 4.98% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 3.54% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.52% Total : 33.3% |
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