Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 42.34%. A win for Mirandes had a probability of 29.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Mirandes win was 0-1 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alaves in this match.
-1.9) 
0.21) 
