Alaves come into the game desperate for a victory to stand any chance of survival, and they may have a good opportunity against a team who are slightly too comfortable to be fighting for their lives.
As a result, we slightly lean towards a victory for El Glorioso on home turf.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 43.71%. A win for Espanyol had a probability of 30.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Espanyol win was 0-1 (8.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Alaves in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Alaves.
-0.17) 
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