Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 48.99%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 25.55% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest Castellon win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
