Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 35.16%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (6.9%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Castellon win was 1-0 (13.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.