Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Granada win with a probability of 39.51%. A win for Burgos had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Granada win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.98%) and 1-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Burgos win was 1-0 (12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Granada would win this match.
0.45) 
-0.39) 
