Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Espanyol win with a probability of 43.8%. A win for Amorebieta had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Espanyol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.46%). The likeliest Amorebieta win was 0-1 (10.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Espanyol would win this match.
0.17) 
-0.64) 
