SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Ponferradina | 41 | 3 | 63 |
| 9 | Cartagena | 41 | 5 | 57 |
| 10 | Real Zaragoza | 41 | -7 | 55 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 19 | Real Sociedad B | 42 | -18 | 40 |
| 20 | Amorebieta | 41 | -20 | 40 |
| 21 | Fuenlabrada | 42 | -26 | 33 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 60.12%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Amorebieta had a probability of 17.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.39%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for an Amorebieta win it was 0-1 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cartagena would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cartagena | Draw | Amorebieta |
60.12% ( 0.61) | 22.6% ( -0.16) | 17.28% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 48.19% ( -0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.02% ( -0.03) | 49.98% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.03% ( -0.02) | 71.96% ( 0.02) |
| Cartagena Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.77% ( 0.2) | 16.23% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.26% ( 0.36) | 45.74% ( -0.36) |
| Amorebieta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.53% ( -0.56) | 42.47% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.16% ( -0.48) | 78.84% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cartagena | Draw | Amorebieta |
| 1-0 @ 12.53% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 11.39% ( 0.16)2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.91% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 5.92% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 2.69% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.98% Total : 60.11% | 1-1 @ 10.73% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.8% Total : 22.6% | 0-1 @ 5.9% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.75% Total : 17.28% |
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