Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Espanyol win with a probability of 48.25%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Burgos had a probability of 25.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Espanyol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.43%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.53%), while for a Burgos win it was 0-1 (8.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
-0.14) 
0.14) 
