This is such a tough match to call, and it would not be a surprise to see this one go all the way to penalties. Espanyol's home record cannot be ignored, though, and we are backing the Catalan outfit to navigate their way back into Spain's top flight courtesy of a 2-1 aggregate success over Real Oviedo.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Espanyol win with a probability of 49.42%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Real Oviedo had a probability of 23.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Espanyol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.22%) and 2-1 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Real Oviedo win it was 0-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Espanyol in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Espanyol.
-0.3) 
0.52) 
