This is shaping up to be a fascinating contest, especially as the two sides played out a seven-goal thriller on Sunday. This game should be a lot tighter, with a low-scoring draw potentially on the cards, which would leave the tie delicately poised ahead of the second leg of the semi-final.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Oviedo win with a probability of 44.08%. A win for Eibar had a probability of 28.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Oviedo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Eibar win was 0-1 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-0.66) 
0.21) 
