Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 37.61%. A draw had a probability of 31.8% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 30.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.72%) and 1-2 (6.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.12%), while for a Lugo win it was 1-0 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Malaga in this match.