Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 35.8%. A win for Alcorcon had a probability of 32.8% and a draw had a probability of 31.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.16%) and 2-1 (6.75%). The likeliest Alcorcon win was 0-1 (13.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Malaga in this match.