Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 36.77%. A draw had a probability of 32.1% and a win for Malaga had a probability of 31.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.51%) and 1-2 (6.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.46%), while for a Malaga win it was 1-0 (13.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cartagena would win this match.