Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 38.29%. A win for Espanyol had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.84%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Espanyol win was 0-1 (11.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rayo Vallecano in this match.