Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 48.19%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Malaga had a probability of 22.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Malaga win it was 0-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.