SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Zaragoza win with a probability of 50.71%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 24.8% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Zaragoza win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Castellon win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Real Zaragoza | Draw | Castellon |
50.71% ( -0.72) | 24.48% ( 0.12) | 24.8% ( 0.59) |
| Both teams to score 53.26% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.27% ( 0.02) | 48.72% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.16% ( 0.02) | 70.83% ( -0.02) |
| Real Zaragoza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.78% ( -0.28) | 19.22% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.08% ( -0.46) | 50.92% ( 0.45) |
| Castellon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.93% ( 0.52) | 34.06% ( -0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.25% ( 0.56) | 70.75% ( -0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Zaragoza | Draw | Castellon |
| 1-0 @ 10.79% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 4.89% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 2.84% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.17% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.02% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.06% Total : 50.7% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.55% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.16% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.47% | 0-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 6.26% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 3.8% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.23% Total : 24.8% |
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