Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 34.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.18%) and 2-0 (6.33%). The likeliest Crotone win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.