Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 39.83%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 37.37% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.96%) and 2-0 (5.09%). The likeliest Crotone win was 1-2 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.