Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 44.01%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Crotone win was 1-0 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
