With a certain amount of Serie A experience offering hope of breaking through Roma's so-far steady defence, Monza can score on their first top-flight trip to the Olimpico - but their chances of taking a point are slimmer. The hosts appear more battle-hardened this season, so should do enough to seize a single-goal win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 68.88%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Monza had a probability of 11.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.39%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Monza win it was 0-1 (4.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
0.31) 
-0.11) 
