Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 56.2%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 20.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.06%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 0-1 (6.23%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Shakhtar Donetsk
56.2% ( -1.35)	23.27% ( 0.3)	20.53% ( 1.05)

Both teams to score 51.69% (

0.71)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.83% (

0.12)

48.17% (

-0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.67% (

0.11)

70.33% (

-0.11)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.05% (

-0.43)

16.95% (

0.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.97% (

-0.77)

47.04% (

0.77)

Shakhtar Donetsk Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.25% (

1.18)

37.76% (

-1.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.47% (

1.13)

74.53% (

-1.12)

Score Analysis

Roma 56.19%

Shakhtar Donetsk 20.53%

Draw 23.27%

Roma	Draw	Shakhtar Donetsk
1-0 @ 11.35% ( -0.22) 2-0 @ 10.08% ( -0.34) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.96% ( -0.29) 3-1 @ 5.81% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.83% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.65% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 2.58% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0) 5-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.08) 5-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.01% Total : 56.19%	1-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.78% ( 0.14) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.27%	0-1 @ 6.23% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 5.39% ( 0.24) 0-2 @ 3.04% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.09) Other @ 1.59% Total : 20.53%