Neither team scores very often, so with Cagliari even less potent on the road - and missing their suspended top scorer - Verona could edge a close-fought contest.
Hellas have clearly improved since the turn of the year, and one more win would essentially confirm their Serie A status.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 40.31%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 31.05% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (10.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.43) 
