Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 44.61%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 27.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.72%) and 1-2 (8.62%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 1-0 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cremonese would win this match.