Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 37.18%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 36.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (6.33%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 1-0 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lecce would win this match.