Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 46.42%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Frosinone had a probability of 24.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.76%) and 2-1 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%), while for a Frosinone win it was 0-1 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bari would win this match.
0.82) 
-0.94) 
