Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 45.52%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Ascoli had a probability of 27.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.92%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.84%), while for an Ascoli win it was 0-1 (9.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
-0.21) 
0.03) 
