Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 31.35% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.85%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (11.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ascoli would win this match.
