Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 49.79%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Ascoli had a probability of 24.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.53%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.25%), while for an Ascoli win it was 0-1 (8.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
0.15) 
-0.39) 
