Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 42.27%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (8.15%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 1-0 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.
