Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for Bari had a probability of 31.04% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
-2.22) 
0.28) 
