Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 55.24%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Bari had a probability of 20.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.43%), while for a Bari win it was 0-1 (6.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
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