Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Bari had a probability of 31.57% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.69%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (11.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.18) 
