Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 44.96%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 29.24% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sampdoria would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.02) 
