Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 42.54%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Ternana win was 0-1 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
1.05) 
-1.06) 
