Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cittadella win with a probability of 35.86%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 35.78% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cittadella win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (11.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cittadella would win this match.
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