Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Bari had a probability of 33.4% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (11.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Modena would win this match.
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