Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Palermo had a probability of 34.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Palermo win was 0-1 (9.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sampdoria in this match.
0.04) 
-0.05) 
