Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 47.98%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 27.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
