Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 41.31%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 33.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-0 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.
-0.29) 
0.44) 
