Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Parma had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.18%) and 2-1 (8.09%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (10.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.
-2.34) 
0.2) 
