Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crotone win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crotone win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
