Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 36.94%. A win for Sudtirol had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.96%). The likeliest Sudtirol win was 1-0 (11.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0.02) 
