SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 42.33%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Perugia win was 0-1 (10.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ascoli in this match.
| Result | ||
| Ascoli | Draw | Perugia |
42.33% ( 0.01) | 27.79% ( -0) | 29.88% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 47.07% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.47% ( 0.01) | 58.53% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.9% ( 0.01) | 79.1% ( -0.01) |
| Ascoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.68% ( 0.01) | 27.32% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.23% ( 0.01) | 62.76% ( -0.01) |
| Perugia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.76% ( 0) | 35.23% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.01% ( 0) | 71.99% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ascoli | Draw | Perugia |
| 1-0 @ 12.49% 2-1 @ 8.45% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.1% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.66% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.51% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.19% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.89% Total : 42.33% | 1-1 @ 13.02% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.63% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.41% ( 0)Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.78% | 0-1 @ 10.04% 1-2 @ 6.8% 0-2 @ 5.24% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.36% 0-3 @ 1.82% 2-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 2.09% Total : 29.88% |
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