Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 55.12%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 20.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.22%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (6.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
-0.22) 
0.09) 
